Oct 6: Today's polls, where we stand

There's a billion polls out there, and each has its own methodology, flaws, etc. I prefer to go with the composite polls, the ones that look at all the polls and find a trend line — something akin to an average poll number. And what I look at is not the national horserace — a fairly irrelevant number — but the thing that matters: the projected electoral vote count.

The two best sources for composite polls are Pollster.com & RealClearPolitics. I don't get into the mechanics and details — these are available for the more geekily inclined on the sites — I just follow the basic trends. And right now, they look good for Obama:

Pollster.com

273 EV are needed to be elected, and currently Obama is in good shape. To look at the individual states, head to Pollster (remember, if you look after the 6th, these numbers will be different).

RealClearPolitics — with toss-up states

RCP has more states in the toss-up category than does Pollster, so Obama is still short in their EV count.

RealClearPolitics — with no toss-up states

When RCP resolves the toss-ups by forcing them into whichever candidate's count they are trending, then it's an overwhelming (projected) Obama lead.

These 3 polls are, for me, a great way to sum the baseline of the campaign: where do we stand in terms of Electoral College votes? I'll update regularly until Nov 4th, when we count the damn things for real.

(Or will we? Let's not forget how many states vote with electronic/no-paper-trail/Diebold Cheat-a-matics.)